Thursday, October 11, 2007
A conjecture about the poll.
I am really quite interested in what the result of the poll at the top of the page is going to be. I will let the same poll run every couple of days (if I can be trusted to be that consistent) Now what I am really interested in is not so much the result from any particular poll but how the numbers will change with time. Obviously the first few people to find my blog will consist almost entirely if not entirely of people that I know personally. Now of course the collection of people who know me personally is much much smaller than the people who do not. I forsee two possible outcomes for the popularity of this blog. The first and most likely outcome is that this blog will have a celebrity that extends only so far as a few friends of mine. The second case of course is that this blog grows in popularity to a much wider audience before it's growth again stabilizes. Of course in both cases since my group of acquaintances is more or less static then the number of yes responses should grow rapidly at first and then stabilize into a more or less linear pattern of growth. The initial rapid growth is due to the fact that those people I know (and have sent a link to) will rapidly find the site but since the circle of these friends is finite the rapid growth will come to a quick stop. the linear growth would be due to my gaining new acquaintances whom I would direct to the site and due to people I already knew who are just finding the site. What is really interesting though is the number of no responses this represents people who have found my site all on their own or who have been linked to it by people who know me. If my blog is good then I can expect the no column to at first experience little to no growth followed by a period comparatively large growth followed by again little to no growth. Of course if my blog is not so appealing then the number of no's should experience basically null growth indefinitely. The reason for the null growth is more or less obvious, the underlying premise for the s-curve shaped growth is that when people who don't know me find the site they are much more likely to share it with other people in their social sphere who are also likely to not know me. Thus after an initial period of anonymity the site could then break into social groups other than my own thus causing rapid growth of the number of nos. This sharing would also tend to saturate whatever groups it is introduced to and would again stabilize.